Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey by Prof Michael Spagat, MD et al.

Table 5 presents the main mortality estimates after raking and weighting adjustments. We estimated that 75 200 violent deaths (95% CI 63 600–86 800) occurred between Oct 7, 2023, and Jan 5, 2025, representing 3·4% of the Gaza Strip’s pre-war population. Among violent deaths, we estimated that 22 800 were children younger than 18 years (95% CI 16 700–28 800), 16 600 were women aged 18–64 years (12 200–20 900), 2870 were people older than 64 years (1020–4720), and 32 900 were men aged 18–64 years (27 600–38 200). Women, children, and older people together comprised 56·2% of violent deaths (95% CI 50·4–61·9), totalling 42 200 deaths (95% CI 33 100–51 300).

… Our findings contradict claims that the MoH has inflated the death toll from the war in the Gaza Strip.⁴ Instead, the MoH appears to provide conservative, reliable figures while working under extraordinary constraints. Our estimates are also incompatible with projections that indirect deaths are at least four times higher than violent deaths⁷ or that 62 413 people died of starvation.⁸ Although subsequent conditions worsened, our data to early January, 2025, show that violent deaths outnumbered non-violent deaths.