- Our study uses capture–recapture methods to estimate total deaths from traumatic injury in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024. By combining three data lists—official hospital lists, an MoH survey, and social media obituaries—we provide an estimate of mortality that accounts for under-reporting. We estimate a total mortality from traumatic injury of 64 260 (95% CI 55 298–78 525), implying that the MoH reports underestimated deaths by 41%. As of October, 2024, the official MoH estimate stood at 41 909, which would suggest that the true mortality figures probably exceeded 70 000. This study emphasises the importance of leveraging statistical methods to accurately estimate armed conflict-related deaths, rather than solely relying on reported figures.
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