Why researchers fear the Gaza death toll could reach 186,000 by Mona Chalabi

PLEASE TAKE ACTION RIGHT NOW AND SEND YOUR LETTER TO THE UN OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISER ON THE PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT PROSECUTOR.

  1. Even if Israel’s bombing campaign were to stop, the death toll in Gaza is expected to soar. A letter published in the medical journal the Lancet claims that the final figure could eventually be about 186,000. Written by scientists who model how war affects health, the letter lays out the importance of an accurate count – and the difficulty of achieving one.

… Without drastic change, Israel will further support claims in the international court of justice that it is committing genocide. Genocidal acts include inflicting “conditions of life” that are intended to bring about the destruction of a group – in other words, indirect deaths must be considered, too. South Africa listed many of these conditions when it made its case against Israel at the ICJ, which ruled there was a plausible risk of genocide.

Continue reading at https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/12/gaza-death-toll-indirect-casualties

Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential by Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee, Salim Yusuf

PLEASE TAKE ACTION RIGHT NOW AND SEND YOUR LETTER TO THE UN OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISER ON THE PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT PROSECUTOR.

  1. Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases… In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip.
  2. … Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement. The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, 2024, require Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of … the Genocide Convention”.

Continue reading at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext