Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence by Michael Spagat, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Havard Hegre, Deberati Guha-Sapir

In this survey-based study of mortality in the Gaza war through January 5 2025, we conclude that: (a) the violent death toll of the war resulted in the deaths of around 3.6% of Gaza’s population, exceeding the official GMoH total; (b) around 56% of the violent deaths were among women, children, and the elderly, a percentage similar to that endorsed by the GMoH; and (c) violent deaths far outnumber nonviolent deaths, though there have still been at least several thousand nonviolent excess deaths. There is striking alignment between our finding, that the comparable GMoH violent-death number is 39% below our central estimate, and the finding of (7), using completely different capture-recapture methods, that the GMoH tally is 41% below their central estimate. The proportion of deaths made up by women, children, and elderly supports the general perception in which noncombatants are frequent victims of the conflict.