Life Expectancy Losses in the Gaza Strip during the Period October, 2023, to September, 2024 by Prof Michel Guillot, Mohammed Draidi, Valeria Cetorelli, José H C Monteiro Da Silva, Ismail Lubbad

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In the central variant, life expectancy in the Gaza Strip decreased by 34·9 years during the first 12 months of the war, about half (–46·3%) the prewar level of 75·5 years. Life expectancy losses were larger for males (–38·0 years [–51·6%]) than for females, but nonetheless, females also suffered large losses (–29·9 years [–38·6%]). Losses between the low and high variants ranged between –31·1 years (–41·1%) and –39·4 years (–52·2%) for both sexes combined.

Interpretation

Our approach to estimating life expectancy losses in this study is conservative as it ignores the indirect effect of the war on mortality. Even ignoring this indirect effect, results show that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip generated a life expectancy loss of more than 30 years during the first 12 months of the war, nearly halving prewar levels. Actual losses are likely to be higher.

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